A public service announcement on a traffic sign from the Arizona Department of Transportation reminds motorists of the coronavirus outbreak on Sunday in Phoenix.
Photo: Ross D. Franklin/Associated PressSince the novel coronavirus emerged late last year in China, Covid-19 has killed about 600,000 people worldwide. During that same time period about 30 million people in the world have died of something else. Thank goodness the virus has not been as fatal as many feared, yet many media observers keep insisting that it is.
In the U.S., amid continuing media reports of spiking, surging and even exploding case numbers, how many people are aware that recent daily deaths are far below the spring peaks? On Friday the federal Centers for Disease Control reported on changes for the weeks ending July 4th and July 11th:
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 8.1% during week 27 to 6.4% during week 28, representing the twelfth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC.
In the absence of a vaccine, necessary reopenings are so far proceeding more or less as one might have reasonably expected and hoped--with a continuing spread of infection but fewer fatal cases.
Yet most coverage is premised on the idea that a rise in cases, regardless of mortality, is an argument for extended lockdown. Tony Romm reports in the Washington Post:
Arizona had been one of the last states to close, and first to reopen, when the coronavirus started to sweep the nation this spring. But a brazen gamble to restart its struggling economy has backfired months later, threatening to plunge workers and businesses into a deeper financial hole.
In the bizarre world of conventional media analysis, burning trillions of dollars by shutting down society based on estimates from public health experts who turned out to be wrong was sensible, but allowing life-sustaining economic activity is a “brazen gamble.”
In reality the burden of proof remains on the lockdowners whose radical approach was originally premised on the idea that the virus would kill millions in the U.S. alone. Is anyone still sticking with those projections? If not, then please show the math justifying further restrictions. Governors who decided to reopen sensibly recognized the horrible mismatch between lockdown costs and benefits. The Post report continues:
Like Florida, Texas and others that opened early, Arizona now ranks as one of the country’s worst coronavirus hot spots, with more than 143,000 cases and more than 2,700 deaths as of this weekend.
It’s not easy to gain necessary perspective from the article, but the story does link to a page featuring various statistics related to the virus. According to the Post’s data, per capita Covid-19 deaths in Florida, Texas and Arizona remain far below the levels in New York and New Jersey. In fact the Post website shows that per capita deaths in both New York and New Jersey are more than 10 times the number in Texas.
These encouraging data out of the Sun Belt suggest at least a few possibilities, along with many others. One possibility is that many more people in the Northeast had the virus in the spring than we realized, so the mortality rate is lower than many feared. Another is that doctors have learned to offer better treatment. Another is that Sun Belt governors have learned to prioritize the protection of the vulnerable elderly, rather than forcing them to live in nursing homes with Covid patients, as in the New York example.
Or maybe there are characteristics of the New York City area that made it uniquely vulnerable. Regardless, the good news is that, despite the absence of a vaccine, the virus is lately killing fewer people.
Speaking of good news, the Post story does actually contain some. “The rate of new, positive coronavirus cases has slightly declined in Arizona in recent days,” begins paragraph 41.
Much like democracy, sometimes the news can seem to die and be buried in the final throes of an extensive commentary.
But not everybody is missing the story. Here’s how Alison Steinbach’s report begins in the Arizona Republic today:
Hospital numbers continue to show a slight decline as Arizona reported 1,559 new COVID-19 cases and 23 more known deaths on Monday.
Inpatient hospitalizations, ICU beds in use and emergency department visits by suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients all continued slight decreases from days prior. Ventilators in use stayed at the same level on Saturday and Sunday but dropped from last week, according to Sunday’s hospital data reported to the state.
Public health experts have begun to notice signs Arizona’s COVID-19 outbreak may be moderating, but more time is needed to know for sure.
There’s still so much we don’t know and this is no time to stop taking prudent measures like frequent hand-washing to protect our friends. But let’s also learn from what appears to be a Sun Belt success.
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And There’s More Good News, America: Shelton Gets a Yes
Americans can thank U.S. Senator John Kennedy (R., Louisiana) for doing his part to maintain sound money. Sen. Kennedy tells this column that he will vote to confirm economist Judy Shelton as a board member of the Federal Reserve in the Senate Banking Committee this week.
Sen. Kennedy expects that Ms. Shelton will win the committee vote and will be promptly confirmed by the full Senate. This is outstanding news for workers and investors who rely on the U.S. dollar as a financial bedrock. Sen. Kennedy calls Ms. Shelton a ”free thinker, and that’s a good thing.”
The Senator also says he’s “not happy” that the Fed balance sheet has expanded by nearly $3 trillion to counter the virus shutdowns but credits Fed Chairman Jay Powell for an outstanding job in maintaining the financial system during this period.
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(Teresa Vozzo helps compile Best of the Web.)
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Mr. Freeman is the co-author of “Borrowed Time,” now available from HarperBusiness.
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